An Overview of the Energy Revolution and Opportunities for Corporate Low-Carbon Strategies Under the 15th Five-Year Plan

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026–2030), officially released on 13 March 2026, sets out the country’s strategic direction for the next five years. It places stronger emphasis on energy transition and green, low-carbon development.

China is currently at a critical stage in achieving its carbon peaking goals. Compared to previous plans, the 15th Five-Year Plan marks a clear shift from controlling energy consumption to a dual control system for carbon emissions (both total volume and intensity). It also prioritizes renewable energy (RE) deployment, electrification, industrial energy efficiency, and digitalization. It’s not only a policy adjustment but also a deeper transformation requirement for companies in terms of energy structure, carbon accounting, and decarbonization pathways.

For companies, the Plan represents both regulatory pressure and long-term opportunity. On the one hand, carbon management and disclosure requirements will tighten. On the other hand, expanding green electricity (GE) supply and maturing low-carbon technologies provide more practical and scalable pathways for emissions reduction. This article highlights key policy directions relevant to energy transition and industrial decarbonization.

Key Targets under the 15th Five-Year Plan

Energy and low-carbon transition have gained unprecedented importance. Of the eight binding targets, six relate directly to green and energy-related objectives, reflecting stronger national commitment.

In addition to the mandatory targets laid out in Chapter 3 “Major Objectives”, the Plan details many specific goals and action directions that provide important guidance for energy and low-carbon development. These contents are also critical for companies to understand policy trends and market opportunities in the next five years.

Key areas covered are as follows:

• Core energy sector priorities: energy security and grid development to enable efficient cross-provincial and cross-regional GE transmission
• New energy security strategy: unlocking new opportunities for corporate GE procurement

The Plan places energy security at a more central position and closely integrates it with the development of RE. This shift has direct implications for corporate Scope 2 emissions reduction. The Plan explicitly calls for the “safe, reliable, and orderly substitution of fossil fuels with non-fossil energy,” alongside the implementation of a “ten-year doubling action for non-fossil energy”, which indicates a substantial increase in the supply of GE, such as wind and solar, over the next five years. This supply-side transformation, driven by the need to strengthen national energy independence, lays a solid foundation for companies to procure green electricity through market-based mechanisms.

From a corporate perspective, as installed capacity and grid integration of clean energy expand, access to green electricity through market mechanisms will no longer be constrained by resource scarcity. GE is evolving from a “nice-to-have” option into a scalable, mainstream solution, enabling companies to align their decarbonization targets more consistently with China’s broader energy transition.

At the same time, the Plan proposes optimizing the national power flow and cross-regional transmission layout, while establishing a unified national electricity market system. This is expected to gradually remove long-standing interprovincial trading barriers and promote more efficient allocation and sharing of power resources across regions. Supporting policies, including the Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Power Grid (NDRC Energy [2025] No. 1802, issued on 1 December 2025), further clarify the need to build a new-type power system. It includes enhancing system flexibility, resilience, and mutual support capabilities by advancing the coordinated development of backbone grids, distribution networks, and smart microgrids; accelerating smart grid deployment; improving urban and rural distribution networks; and strategically deploying pumped hydro and new energy storage systems. These measures provide critical support for integrating and consuming high shares of RE.

According to the Plan, by 2030:

• A new-generation grid platform will be largely established
• West-to-East power transmission capacity will exceed 420 GW
• Additional interprovincial balancing capacity of 40 GW will be added
• Distribution networks will become more flexible and intelligent
• New operating models, such as integrated “generation–grid–load–storage” systems and virtual power plants, will be supported
• Continued expansion of ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission will significantly enhance cross-regional clean energy delivery.

These developments are expected to support RE reaching approximately 30% of total power generation.

For generation, the Plan includes large-scale wind and solar bases in desert, Gobi, and arid regions, coastal nuclear power bases, and frontier technologies such as controlled nuclear fusion among its 109 major projects. Controlled nuclear fusion is explicitly identified as a key future industry, with a focus on advancing its engineering and commercialization during the Plan period. Together with quantum technology and hydrogen energy, it forms part of the next generation of strategic technologies driving new productive forces. It is also listed among the 28 landmark projects aimed at fostering new economic growth drivers. This signals a shift in China’s energy system from large-scale deployment of mature low-carbon technologies toward the engineering and commercialization of next-generation zero-carbon technologies. The transition will enhance long-term energy security and deep decarbonization potential through diversified technology pathways.

Within the policy framework, as illustrated in Figure 1 (layout of clean energy bases), several major clean energy bases including the “Three-North” (northern regions) wind and solar bases, integrated hydro-wind-solar bases in southwest China, and coastal nuclear and offshore wind clusters will form the backbone of future green electricity supply. These cross-regional energy hubs will be efficiently connected to demand centers in eastern and central China through UHV transmission networks. This not only strengthens physical power transmission capacity across regions but also provides essential infrastructure for green power trading under the unified national electricity market, enabling optimized allocation and efficient utilization of renewable energy at scale.

A national unified electricity market with a steadily increasing share of RE and increasingly well-integrated interregional grid infrastructure means the following for companies:

• Greater flexibility in procurement, with GE sourcing breaking geographic barriers: Companies are no longer constrained by local RE availability. Leveraging the unified national electricity market mechanisms and cross-regional transmission channels, enterprises can directly access major clean energy hubs such as the “Three-North” (north, northeast and northwest China) wind and solar bases and the Southwest integrated hydropower–wind–solar bases, enabling the procurement of GE with both cost advantages and high-quality environmental attributes, while diversifying and stabilizing supply sources.

• More mature trading mechanisms, reducing the cost and complexity of green power transactions: The unified national electricity market establishes a standardized and well-regulated trading system, providing transparent and consistent price signals. Unified rules and streamlined processes address long-standing challenges such as regional fragmentation, information asymmetry, and cumbersome transaction procedures, significantly simplifying GE trading and lowering communication and operational costs for market-based electricity procurement.

• Clearer compliance pathways, enhancing carbon accountability and data traceability: Improved cross-provincial transmission infrastructure and more mature market mechanisms will facilitate better alignment between GEC and the physical delivery of RE power. It significantly enhances the accuracy of corporate carbon accounting, particularly Scope 2 emissions, while strengthening compliance and traceability in sustainability disclosures.

Overall, electricity system reforms driven by energy security priorities are creating more practical ways for companies to procure GE at scale and on a sustained basis. This is also shifting Scope 2 emissions reduction from a target-driven approach toward one guided by actionable pathways.

Dual Carbon Control: From Targets to Systematic Management

The 15th Five-Year Plan further strengthens China’s carbon constraint framework, setting a target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17% and fully implementing a “dual control” system on both total carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Unlike previous approaches that focused primarily on energy consumption, this shift directly incorporates carbon emissions into binding indicators, marking a transition toward a stricter and more enforceable phase of climate governance. At the same time, the Plan calls for expanding the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading system (ETS) and progressively establishing product carbon footprint accounting rules and carbon labeling certification policies. This signals a shift in carbon management from the company level to a broader focus on products and supply chains.

For companies, the changes are structural. Carbon emissions will no longer be confined to ESG or disclosure topics but will increasingly become a core variable directly linked to costs, pricing, and market access. For export-oriented companies, robust carbon footprint data and transparent accounting systems will be essential to navigating international green trade regulations. For energy-intensive industries, tightening carbon constraints will accelerate process upgrades and energy structure transformation.

Therefore, companies need to move from “passive accounting” to “active management”, including establishing comprehensive carbon accounting systems across Scope 1–3, assessing the cost and feasibility of different decarbonization pathways (such as energy efficiency improvements, renewable energy procurement, and supply chain engagement), and progressively exploring carbon asset management and internal carbon pricing mechanisms. Companies that build systematic carbon management capabilities early will be better positioned to adapt and compete in an increasingly strict policy and market environment.

Deep Industrial Decarbonization: From Single Solution to Systemic Transformation

The 15th Five-Year Plan places digitalization, green development, and integration at its core, driving the industrial system into a phase of deep transformation. In traditional sectors, key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and building materials will accelerate technological upgrades, while mechanisms such as energy efficiency “benchmarking leaders” will strengthen constraints and continuously raise efficiency and environmental standards. In emerging industries, next-generation information technology, new energy, and intelligent connected vehicles are further elevated as pillar sectors, serving as key engines for both future growth and low-carbon transition.

Notably, the Plan introduces for the first time the development of “zero-carbon factories” and “zero-carbon industrial parks,” emphasizing carbon management across the entire lifecycle – from energy use and production processes to end products. This indicates a shift from isolated technological upgrades toward a systemic approach encompassing energy structure, production processes, and supply chain collaboration.

For companies, this transition presents both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, stricter energy efficiency and carbon constraints will accelerate the phase-out of inefficient capacity and raise operational thresholds. On the other hand, as green manufacturing standards and product carbon footprint systems mature, companies with low-carbon production capabilities will gain clear advantages in customer selection, supply chain access, and brand premium. Early investment in zero-carbon pathways and digital energy-carbon management capabilities will be critical to maintaining competitiveness.

Conclusion

Overall, the 15th Five-Year Plan systematically integrates energy transition, carbon management, and industrial upgrading from target-setting to implementation pathways, outlining a clear roadmap for China’s low-carbon development over the next five years. The policy framework acts to strengthen both institutional and infrastructure foundations for low-carbon transition. It spans more strict energy and carbon control targets, to the coordinated development of a unified national electricity market and carbon market mechanisms, to major infrastructure initiatives such as large-scale renewable energy bases in desert regions, coastal nuclear power, and controllable nuclear fusion, as well as the accelerated construction of new power systems and cross-regional transmission networks.  This is driving decarbonization from a phase of “policy encouragement” toward one that is actionable, measurable, verifiable, and tradable.

For companies, this trend implies not only more stringent and systematic compliance and disclosure requirements, but also the increasing maturity of tools and market mechanisms related to renewable energy procurement, electricity market participation, supply chain decarbonization, and carbon asset management. As power system flexibility improves and cross-regional green electricity allocation expands, companies will have more viable options for optimizing energy structures and designing decarbonization pathways. Integrating carbon management into corporate strategy at an early stage and systematically planning energy procurement and decarbonization pathways will help companies stay ahead in an environment of tightening policies and intensifying green competition. This will be key to balancing compliance, cost optimization, and long-term value creation.

RESET Services

1. Corporate Decarbonization Strategy & Roadmap 

We support companies in developing actionable decarbonization pathways in response to evolving policy requirements and market mechanisms. 

Key services: 

• Corporate GHG baseline assessment (Scope 1, 2, 3); ISO 14064 support 
• SBTi / Net Zero target setting and pathway development 
• Identification and prioritization of abatement opportunities; Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) analysis 
• Mid- to long-term decarbonization roadmap development (2025–2035) 

2. Renewable Electricity & Power Market Strategy

We design optimal energy transition strategies leveraging the national power market and enhanced cross-regional transmission capacity. 

Key services: 

• Renewable Energy procurement strategy (including multi-region sourcing and financial impact analysis) 
• Renewable Energy Implementation support (including Green Electricity (GE) procurement, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) andGreen Electricity Certificate (GEC) aggregation) 
• Power market policy analysis and market transparency insights

3. Scope 3 and Supply Chain Decarbonization Program 

We help companies respond to customer decarbonization and supply chain carbon disclosure requirements. 

Key services: 

• Supply chain carbon management and supplier engagement program design 
• Supplier screening and abatement potential assessment 
• Identification of energy efficiency and decarbonization opportunities (including ROI analysis) 
• Program implementation and management 
• Supplier capability-building and training 
• ISO 14064 support 

4. Product Carbon Footprint & LCA

Key services: 

• Product Carbon Footprint (PCF) 
• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) 
• Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) support 
• ISO 14067 and ISO 14040/44 support